Gaza war - blogpost part 4

reddit · Apr 21, 2024

I am from India and blog about geopolitics including the Gaza war.
This is part 4 of my Gaza series. I do not discuss the politics behind the conflict,
only military operations.
I argue that Israel has turned around its military campaign and called the bluff of Hezbollah and Iran.

There are 3 areas where the numbers have dramatically changed:

IDF casualties (last 3 months vs previous 3). Israel's casualties have been reducing each month.
In April the IDF lost just 4 men. They have been able to withdraw a substantial portion of their original force, while retaining enough for an operation against Rafah.
Gaza civilian casualties. Using Gaza health ministry figures, I show that deaths in Gaza (net of normal mortality and deaths of Hamas fighters) have reduced dramatically in the last 3 months compared to the first 3. (from 177 per day to 27).
Casualties vs Hezbollah compared to 2006. The IDF is doing a lot better against Hezbollah and appears to have called Iran's bluff. I have shared a link to a post giving a pro Iran perspective on
the drone and missile strike while arguing that it was a strategic mistake by Iran.
While there is a lot of attention on the strikes and counter strikes between Israel and Iran, I believe what has gone unnoticed is a quiet turnaround on the battlefield. The conflict hasn't ended but I believe Israel is now in a better position than it was in November at the time of the first ceasefire.